5 min read

Supply chain planning in a post-COVID-19 world

John O'Connor

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More than ever, businesses need to anticipate and communicate changes in demand to be able to respond effectively in the short term and thrive when the tide turns. And they need to do it fast.

If we have learned nothing else since COVID-19 made its entrance onto the global stage, we are now brutally aware of the importance of the supply chain, the visibility of demand, and the ability to make decisions at speed with the right players in the room. The critical questions that supply chains are being forced to address are, “How is demand changing?”, “How do we respond effectively?”, and “How do we prepare for the return to whatever the new normal looks like?”

At Deloitte, we work on time horizons reflecting the short-, mid- and long-terms. We call them Respond, Recover, and Thrive. For the purpose of simplicity, I am going to talk about global supply chain challenges and what we need to do under those time-specific banners.

Respond

Right now, we are seeing different sectors and industries at different stages. Businesses now need to think about how that change reflects back into their supply chains:

  • 在零售和热情款待中，我们观察到自社会疏远，消费者信心的变化以及大多数零售和酒店渠道关闭以来的行为方式发生了巨大变化。结果，这些部门的需求发生了巨大变化，现在需要考虑如何使业务生存并生存。
  • 在参考亚搏娱乐电子资料中,我们看到了密苏里州的持续需求st cases but are starting to see supply chain impacts, particularly in the providers of maintenance spare parts impacting availability.

There is a big focus in the Respond phase on cash and how it is managed—where do we spend cash, what inventory do we invest in and how do we decide which suppliers to pay? How do we make those long-term decisions for the good of the business? It is important that when we make those evaluations, we look not only at our own liquidity and cash flow but also at that of our suppliers.

We find that there is a real lack of data available in businesses across their supply chains, which impacts the ability to look two, three, and four levels deep into the supply chain to see which suppliers and sub-suppliers are being impacted. As the initial challenges of the shutdown of manufacturing and logistics networks in China have passed, we have seen the same challenges move into manufacturing bases in Europe and the U.S. with implications around the availability of particular sub-components, parts and finished goods.

在本质上：

  • 确定需求不断变化对供应链的影响并建立缓解措施。
  • Leverage planning to reduce cash outlays and preserve cash.
  • 评估营运资金和流动性要求 - 您和您的供应商。
  • Assess digital capabilities and enable data-driven insights to identify areas of risk in the supply chain.

恢复

Increasingly, many industries are already turning their minds to this. They need to move from traditional forecasting models into scenario-based approaches because the demand data for the last few months is not a good indication of what they are going to need to supply. External leading indicators are needed to tell them that it’s time to refocus and rebalance their supply chains to get ready and go again–they cannot rely on the “normal” cues from customers or anymore. A lot of focus is on identifying bottlenecks and alternative sources of supply as organizations start to think about the resilience of their supply chains and how they might diversify their supply options in the short- to medium-term.

人们强烈关注集成的跨职能团队，推动更快的计划过程和决策的权力下降，更接近前线。传统的一个月的S＆OP流程尚未达到这些时期所需的决策速度。

我们发现，要消除不一致和分散价格执行的定价学科可以提高利润率。考虑到，在许多情况下，价格上涨1％的营业利润可能会超过10％，而且通常，定价更强的纪律也可以帮助防止下跌，因为客户在严重的低迷期间对利润率施加了更大的压力。

在本质上：

  • 将预测模型转移到基于方案，并包括外部领先指标和预测智能计划。
  • 专注于供应市场并识别瓶颈和替代来源。
  • 专注于跨职能团队和下放的决策，以实现更多敏捷的计划过程。
  • Improve the pricing discipline.

蓬勃发展

Long term, it will be interesting to see how organizations reconfigure their supply chains to improve resilience. Industry 4.0 and a proliferation of IoT are driving increased levels of visibility and connectedness and we expect this to accelerate in response to the lessons of COVID. Such steps could include more onshoring and “nearshoring” of production, greater automation, and using additive manufacturing to create new supply chain options. We expect to see an increased focus and investment around the digitization of supply chains, particularly regarding enhancing visibility and integrated planning.

我们的分析表明，大多数成功浏览先前衰退的高性能公司继续进行创新，引入新产品以及位置产品和增长服务。亚搏彩票手机版免费下载当前的危机提供了一个机会，将研发集中在未来几个月内可能最吸引人的产品，服务和包装上，危机减少。

在本质上：

  • 制度化危机和弹性计划。
  • 重新配置供应链，越来越重视弹性和工业4.0。
  • Plan for new product launches, marketing, and R&D, and position products and services for growth.
  • 加速数字计划，并致力于真正整合计划。
For more insights, view our full webinar Finance & Supply Chain Planning under uncertainty: How do companies respond and get ready for the recovery? Watch webinar