Optimizing the financial forecast: Evolving from stagnant methods to address complexity

Gone are the days of stagnant financial forecasts without flexibility or agility. Today, the evolved financial forecast provides FP&A leaders the resources they need to stay on track.

Over time, accurate and granular financial forecasting evolved into an essential part of every financial planning and analysis (FP&A) organization. An activity that started as a static plan to review outcomes has become a central pillar of business attainment, and when done properly, unlocks value-add capabilities such as cause analysis, scenario planning, and real-time decision-making.

The old way

当财务组织意识到他们需要一种评估绩效，比较预算与实际的工具，确定结果偏离期望的领域以及试图进行课程纠正的领域时，预测作为一个过程的预测开始。

但是，这绝非易事。季度检查业务绩效提供了有限的透明度和一个反应性状态，在报道时，结果不再受到影响。这与对数据的访问有限和重大过程负担相结合，将应该是增值活动变成了一项繁琐的工作。财务组织没有带宽来分析结果的带宽，并且由于对资源，工具，灵活性和部门之间的协作的限制，无法以任何重大方式注入洞察力。亚搏娱乐电子

Fortunately, time-interval and stagnant forecasting is becoming a thing of the past. Global disruption and evolving stakeholder requirements are reshaping financial forecasts to be constantly refined and optimized on an ongoing basis. To address changing consumer behavior, an increasingly competitive and crowded marketplace, and deepening interests in social and environmental impacts, companies are required to be more agile and forecasting is no exception, especially as it relates to keeping pace with competitors.

由于流程改进，数据可访问性，资源适应性和现代技术，业务领导者有更多机会维持更高质量，更有效的财务预测，并可以将一个古老的流程转变为组织的战略优势。

The new way

如今，财务预测已经完全发展。组织正在使用持续的预测来说明快速变化，使计划“始终开放”以柔韧性足以满足不断发展的市场状况。这使领导者可以使用实时数据来评估多个“假设”方案，并积极参与跨职能的利益相关者，并积极地确定在课程校正之前需要大写的领域。

财务预测已成为一个活动，所有部门都对组织构成了贡献，因此该组织朝着其方向统一。场景建模可以解锁更明智和有影响力的决策，并且始终在计划中解释了不断变化的数据的实时影响。随着新技术提供可见性和洞察力，组织领导者可以通过快速的枢轴计划，应对和天气挑战。

That said, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to financial forecasting. An effective financial forecast can and should make use of modern techniques across processes. Of these techniques, a few are commonalities within financial forecasts of high performing organizations.

• Rolling forecasting:There is no better route to unlocking “always-on” planning than moving away from interval time-based forecasting. Rolling forecasts are enabled by modern tools that can harness real-time access to data and update results on an ongoing basis, rather than during periodic refreshes. For example, instead of doing a quarterly reforecast where an organization maintains two historic quarters and six forward looking quarters, they may move to monthly reforecast where the oldest historic month is dropped, and the newest forward-looking month is added, providing real-time views into trending, and rolling KPIs. This provides agility to maintain a more relevant and longer forward-looking horizon as well as react more efficiently to unforeseen events.
• Predictive forecasting:As organizations accrue unforeseen amounts of data, it is becoming necessary to augment analysis with more intelligent tools spanning beyond human capacity. Intelligent forecasting techniques harnessing machine learning and artificial intelligence, can recognize patterns in data blended from both internal and external sources, empowering robust insights. These predictive capabilities are especially useful when interpreting fluctuating consumer demand, variable supply chains, and global macroeconomic factors. Finance organizations need the ability to produce localized intelligence as well as consume intelligent operational forecasts from within the organization, to adequately participate in strategic decision-making.
• 基于异常的预测：在过去几年中的发生证明，创建高表现财务预测的主要因素是处理异常事件的能力。随着世界发展的速度，不再可以假设可以推动历史性的业务周期，并且随着发生不可预见的事件的发生，预测技术需要足够适应性，以可预测地适应这些事件，以减轻风险并利用优势机会。如果国际制造商在拥挤的运输港口苦苦挣扎，并拥有正确的杠杆和可见度，则领导者可以选择将物料购买转移到国内合作伙伴，并使用诸如铁路之类的替代运输方法，并强调了从时间到最终利润的含义。
• 基于驾驶员的预测：可以说，高效能财务预测的最基本组成部分是将假设或驱动因素动态分配到计划中的能力。利用基于驾驶员的预测使用决策假设，共同建立全面的财务状况。这使财务能够到达可以用来使跨职能对方负责的跨职能的观点，以创建可预测的财务成果。例如，随着财务正在建立18个月的预测，场景建模可能会揭示出核心产品销售成本（COGS）的5％降低是实现组织集合的目标的途径。金融可以利用这些知识来加油和与供应链对应的对话，以确保该组织有望实现其目标。

Conclusion

No longer are organizations beholden to projecting forward with simple historic data methods. Modern financial forecasting is here today, but it’s only accessible through truly modern technology platforms providing access, intelligence, and agility. Advanced driver-based, sensitized financial forecasts help organizations maintain a real-time understanding of their organization’s financial trajectory and ultimately produce predictable results. While some organizations are still attempting to use spreadsheets and manual data manipulation, technology like Anaplan allows businesses to leverage the right data, involve the right people, and deliver the right information. Using Anaplan, organizational leaders can harness financial forecasting methods necessary create a high performance financial forecasting environment.