5 tips for better revenue forecasting
如果您是一家大型公开交易公司的销售副总裁，CFO或首席执行官，那么缺少您的销售预测是犯错的最灾难性的事情之一。金融市场的分析师预计年终业绩将与他们在公司演讲中获得的指导广泛一致。因此，错过的销售预测可能直接导致您的股价下降，而在此监测的英国公司的股价中位数下降了14.5％E＆Y跟踪研究。The situation is little different in North America, with historic data suggesting the股价下跌可能会更高，为16.59％。您的股东和董事会成员也将感到不安。毫无疑问：在一家上市公司将收入预测错误可能是您职业生涯中最广泛报道的活动，您的名字在那里供所有人查看CNBC网页致力于收益和利润警告。
我真的怀疑分析师或股东更加感激ate just how difficult it is for companies to have a clear view of revenue prospects in these rapidly changing times. When growth at home dips down, companies increasingly look to grow sales in new markets where they are less familiar with both macroeconomic conditions and local customer needs. All this makes it difficult to precisely predict revenue. And it becomes doubly difficult when新产品或新兴市场参与其中，因为您没有历史数据可以证明期望。
创建有效收入预测的5种技术
Successful companies have proven that revenue forecast accuracy can be increased by implementing滚动重新归档so that new information is constantly incorporated as the fiscal year progresses. Forecasting, let alone rolling forecasting, can be daunting for companies that can barely get a single annual budget done. Here are five fundamental practices that can significantly enhance your revenue forecast quality.
1. Forecast at the right level of detail
Many revenue forecasts are generated by applying the expected market growth rate to current year sales, then substantiated by detailed planning that takes into account factors such as the number of product units sold, average selling prices, and seasonality. However, some elements of any revenue forecast are always more important than others, so it follows that some need to be forecast in considerable detail while others can simply be aggregated. For instance, you might reforecast every pack size of fast-moving Category A products by modeling current sales orders. But you might instead simply project a forecast for slow-moving Category C product groups and generate a SKU-level forecast for production, based on the mix of recent orders. In many markets, where the growth trends of individual products vary between different geographies, market segments, and channels, revenue forecasts also need to be done at more granular levels and across multiple dimensions in order to achieve any degree of accuracy. Watch to make sure you are forecasting at the right level of detail for the right area.
2.参与所有关键人物
参与收入重新记录的人太多会增加该过程的时间和成本。但是，允许总办公室工作人员通过推断趋势来重新归档，这意味着冒着忽略仅在业务中其他地方知道的重要因素的风险。智能预测涉及确定对主要客户，商业渠道和市场有特定知识的人，并使他们能够将其智能输入到预测中。这依赖于具有允许Web和移动访问的计划解决方案。这样，就可以利用本地市场或产品线知识，以提供有关即将到来的需求尖峰和槽的有价值的信息，否则可能不会引起人们的注意。
3.销售渠道的因素生产率
在B2B市场中，收入预测始终需要与公司的销售资源调和。为了建立现实的收入目标，计划人员需要了解人员可以完成的内部或外部销售目标，以及他们可以将潜在客户实际转化为客户的速度。在这样的市场中有效的领土和配额规划由于必须考虑销售部队的生产率，关闭率以及必须考虑潜在客户的数量，因此是收入预测的重要先驱。
4.不断重新审视假设
自下而上的收入预测方法植根于高度颗粒状的客户，销售代表或包装尺寸建模始终会产生更准确的数字。他们还提供了更好的洞察力，并了解基本假设中的微小变化如何影响收入以及纠正方差需要采取哪些措施。但是，计划者需要认识到大多数输入变量是估计值，而小变化可能会对预测数字产生很大的影响。这些输入变量中有许多（例如关闭时间和转换率）都是需要密切监控的重要关键绩效指标，因为它们通常是需要管理注意力的问题的第一个迹象。
5.批准针对市场数据的收入预测
收入预测很少是理性的。关于实际需要多少收入来支付支出并获得可接受的利润，通常会有很多谈判，因此讨论通常是由情感而不是商业现实驱动的。因此，要对市场宏观视图进行任何收入预测进行现实检查。这样，市场规模，市场增长和市场份额的任何差异都很快就变得明显。在收入预测过程中实施这种自上而下的支票很快，很容易做到，因为要处理的数字较少，预测是基于一般趋势。
采用这些准则意味着引入更频繁的预测和构建基于驾驶员的模型，这些模型可以快速更新以说明销售管道和市场条件下波动的变化。不可避免地，您将使用自己选择的计划和预算解决方案more frequently and may find it is unable to support the type of dynamic forecasting process you are seeking to implement. If that is the case, then you should read our recent blog post,“在解决方案中寻找什么以支持滚动重新构成”—the second piece in the series on rolling reforecasting. Supported by the appropriate technology, better FP&A processes will make the difference between revenue forecasts that give everyone the best chance of hitting their targets and those that are simply wishful thinking masquerading as sound planning.